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Abstract
Using Telser and Kataoka models of probabilistic-risky
mathematical programming, the present research is to
determine the optimized pattern of cultivating the agricultural
products of Shoshtar region under risky conditions. In order to
consider the risk in the mentioned models, time period of
agricultural years 1996-1997 till 2004-2005 was taken into
account. Results from Telser and Kataoka models showed that
due to accepting the risk amounts, most of the optimized
amounts suggest the tomato cultivation during the cultivation
period of fall, and watermelon cultivation during the cultivation
period of spring. On the basis of results, due to allocation of
agricultural lands of Shoshtar to tomato and watermelon
cultivation and specializing the farming activity in this province,
gross profit of agricultural production system can be increased
to 6116047000 and 727782272 thousand Rials, respectively.
The results of understudy models were investigated under
different income scenarios and probabilistic levels of risk
acceptance. Correct policy making in order to offer the suitable
equipments for adjusting the effects of lack of certainty and
risks due to the climatic unwanted conditions in production
process of agricultural products of Shoshtar region improve
the life situation of farmers of the mentioned region.