Files
Abstract
To observers concerned with improvement in the world
wheat situation, the crop year 1933-34 was one of disappointed
hopes and expectations. Early indications pointed
toward a world wheat crop ex-Russia small enough to assure
substantial reduction of the world wheat surplus and to
foreshadow a rise in wheat prices, with an accompanying
measure of relief to wheat producers and to governments
deeply engaged in assisting producers.
Week by week as the season progressed, however, the
crop forecasts and estimates made larger and larger world
totals; and appraisals standing in December 1934 were some
300 million bushels-nearly 10 per cent-above forecasts
current in August and September 1933. World wheat prices,
low when the crop year opened, tended to fall rather than
to rise in the early months. Even with an advance in the
spring and early summer of 1934 associated with unfavorable
development of the ] 934 crop, the average crop-year price
of wheat (gold basis) on free import markets fell to a new
low-an occurrence avoided, however, in several countries
where national currencies were sufficiently depreciated, or
where protective devices provided sufficient shelter.
Governmental price fixing, direct and indirect subsidization
of wheat exports, and barriers to wheat imports were
more widely in evidence than ever before. Year-end stocks
were brought to a new high level when the year closed. The
first attempt at governmental co-operation in international
wheat control was unsuccessful in its major objectives.
"Wheat adjustment" in the United States, domestically a
qualified success, had little or no favorable influence on the
current international position. The volume of international
trade in wheat and flour plumbed new post-war depths
(though this was early anticipated), and ruled at the level
characteristic in the first decade of the twentieth century.