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Abstract
Current trade policy pursued by the Sri Lankan government on rice can best be described as adhoc
as it is characterized by protecting farmers during glut seasons and consumers during deficit
seasons. This study examines the economy-wide impacts of various policy packages on rice and
related markets, which consist of liberal as well as protectionist elements. A general equilibrium
model developed for the Sri Lankan economy using the input-output table for 2000 was used for
the analysis. The model consists of 5 sectors, 2 factors of production and households in 8
representative provinces. The key results of the analysis indicate that removal of the import
tariff on rice along with removals of the import tariff on fertilizer and/or subsidy payments on
other agricultural sectors could improve economic efficiency and household welfare across
provinces. Contrary to the general belief that protectionism is pro-poor, an import ban on rice
reduces household income and welfare even in agricultural provinces, including Uva and
Sabaragamuwa. Further analysis indicates that broad-brush approaches may not yield expected
outcomes, as the policy packages generate second best outcomes due to existence of other
distortions in the economy. The key channel of transmission of trade shock to households
appears to be through government transfer payments that are influenced by changes in
government expenditures on subsidy payments.