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Abstract
Acid deposition is a present and future cause of biodiversity losses in vulnerable upland areas
of Scotland important for nature conservation. However, the exact nature of damage under the
status quo, and both the timing and extent of recovery of upland ecosystems if deposition is
reduced. are subject to uncertainty. This uncertainty complicates damage cost estimation. In this
paper, we have explored the use of CVM to measure the willingness to pay (WfP) of the Scottish
population for uncertain recovery/damage scenarios from reduced acid rain deposition. An
optimally-designed referendum format was used, utilising the distribution of open-ended bids
from a pilot study to determine bid amounts and sampling size for each bid amount. Eight
explanatory variables, including future damage level were selected in a non-linear step-wise
regression analysis. Average household WTP for abatement of acid rain was £247 and £351 per
year when faced with low and high future damage levels respectively. Recovery level and
recovery time did not significantly influence WTP. When faced with risky outcomes regarding
future damage and recovery level respondents were found to be risk averse to both
environmental gains and losses.