The WTO negotiations on the reform of agricultural tariffs, export subsidies and domestic support is proving to be increasingly frustrating with little progress since prior to the Cancun Ministerial of August 2003, apart from an agreement to keep talking. In this paper a possible outcome in the agricultural negotiations is analysed and the various impacts on exporters, importers and taxpayers assessed. The results indicate that holding out for exemptions leads to a loss in welfare for developing countries but export growth is maintained. Whether this is an attractive outcome depends on priorities. One inherent drawback is that the majority of WTO members will experience a welfare loss from any likely negotiated agricultural reform.


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