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Vietnam is about to join the WTO. As a major exporter of rice, coffee, cashew nuts and pepper, accession to the WTO will have little impact on these export markets, as tariffs on these exports are already low. However, accession will require Vietnam to expose some of its inefficient agricultural sectors, such as sugar and maize, to international competition. Furthermore, multilateral reforms within the WTO are likely to raise prices of temperate product goods that are imported by Vietnam, worsening its terms of trade. A quantitative analysis of likely policy changes is undertaken assuming Vietnam’s accession terms are likely to bring its agricultural tariffs down to an average of 18 per cent. A likely WTO outcome is then simulated. The impacts suggest Vietnam gains from accession but further WTO liberalisation raises import prices and has a negative impact.


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