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Abstract

Numerous solutions to the global coffee crisis have been suggested, including some form of supply constraint. UNCTAD’s Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) is used to assess the likely changes in coffee prices and export revenues of effective production constraints. Results indicate that a 10 per cent reduction of exports in the four major producing countries is estimated to increase world prices by 17 per cent and increase these countries' export revenues by 6 per cent in the long run. Other coffee exporters would increase their exports and therefore would gain proportionally more. Further gains would result from the additional production of alternative crops.

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