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Abstract

This article exammes the changes in grain exports from 1973 to 1985 A stmpltfied three-country trade model is introduced as a framework for analyzing U S gram trade, world gram trade, and market price when changes in two real effective exchange rates occur an exchange rate based on US trade with grain importers and an exchange rate based on global trade of grain competitors Although collitnearty in the data series makes implementatton of the theoretical model difficult, evidence suggests that the cumulative effect of a 1-percent depreciation (appreciation) in the value of the dollar was to expand (contract) U S wheat exports in the range of 2 3 percent and to expand feed grain exports in the range of 14 percent Wheat exports have adjusted to real exchange rate changes only over a long period of 10 -12 quarters Feed grain exports have been quicker to adjust to real exchange rate changes, but there are itgnificant lagged effects

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