Files
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect impacts of sugarcane
expansion on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from 2001 to 2008. The analysis is
based on the multi-output production theory where the annual agricultural acreage
represents the Production Possibility Frontier. It assumes that agricultural area is
limited and any agricultural expansion occurs over traditional agricultural areas
displacing some crops and pushing them to the agricultural frontier, where forests will be
cleared. The econometric analysis was carried out using a panel data model where the
counties are the cross section unity. The output supply for São Paulo state and the
agricultural frontier states (Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Maranhão and Tocantins) in the
Center-West region are estimated separately, considering the acreage as proxy of the
output and the crop prices of sugarcane, soybean, corn, beans, cotton and the total
annual acreage as the independent variables. The impact of crop prices and the annual
agricultural crop expansion over the deforestation acreage are also estimated. Our best
estimates reveal that it is not possible to establish a direct connection between sugarcane
area expansion and Amazon deforestation, and while the indirect effects are very small,
sugarcane also expanded over pastures and perennial crops, leading to an overall
increase in annual crop area.