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Abstract
Three new probalistic assessments of oil resources by the United States
Geological Survey and the United States Minerals Management Service result in an
expansion of global remaining conventional world oil resource estimates. The new value
used here is 3.3 trillion barrels; the comparable earlier 1991 assessment was 2.1 trillion
barrels. Using optimal control depletion theory, a global monopoly has theoretical net
present value economic rent of $22 trillion, with supply-demand quantity equilibria
peaking in about 85 years, then declining to exhaustion in 25-30 years. However, actual
global markets (as distinct from theoretical markets) operate in a game theoreticframework.
The Persian Gulf-OPEC team of exporters (accompanied by Norway and
Mexico) faces the United States- Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development team of importers. The acceptable price range before September 11 was
$23 - $30 per barrel. The Persian Gulf continues to be the major locus of world oil
resources, and has production costs (including return on capital and a risk allowance) at
$5 per barrel or less