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Abstract
Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to
characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices. Prices in April, May and June
appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices
are perhaps skewed. Econometric models can capture the historical behavior of spot
prices, but forecasts converge to the marginal distribution of the sample prices in about
six months. Futures prices for Class III milk have the expected time-to-maturity effect
and converge to the respective monthly distributions of the cash prices at contract
maturity (as they must, since the contracts are cash settled). Thus, econometric models
and futures quotes provide similar information about price behavior at contract maturity.
Routine hedges in futures, especially those made four or more months prior to maturity,
reduce the variance of returns, but over a period of years, lock-in an "average" return.
While econometric models and futures quotes provide imprecise forecasts, they can be
used in conjunction with historical data to determine whether expected prices are high
relative to past experience. This may assist with making decisions about selective
hedging. Likewise, historical evidence may be useful in evaluating expected returns from
the use of put options. Results from simple hedging strategies using either futures or puts
are illustrated, but more work is needed to evaluate "optimal" portfolios for dairy farmers.