China’s small-scale hog production and implications for trade: Evidence from a farmer survey

Using primary data of 3,327 Chinese farmers and their villages collected through a survey in 2010, this study identifies the factors that affect farmers’ decision to raise hogs and the factors that determine the hog farmers’ production scale and discusses the likely future of small-scale hog production and its potential impacts on China’s pork market and trade. Estimation results of a Heckman model suggest that labor availability, the opportunity of earning income from nonfarm jobs, and the existence of large-scale hog farms and processing facilities in the local area are among the major factors of the participation and scale decisions. As China’s demand for pork has been increasing at a relatively stable rate, China’s pork imports from the U.S. and other nations are increasingly determined by its domestic pork supply, especially the production of small-scale hog farmers due to its sensitivity to price, disease, subsidy, and other factors.