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Abstract
Time-series methods based on panel data are used to increase the power of conventional
econometric tests of present value models commonly applied to studies of asset
valuation. A second contribution is to allow for the presence of frictions in farmland
markets by allowing for threshold nonlinearities in the empirical model. Using countylevel
data on Iowa farmland prices and cash rental rates between 1987 and 2010, panel
data unit root models that allow for switching-regimes provide evidence in favor of the
present value models. In one regime, where a threshold in the spread between rents
and values is yet to be reached, deviations are persistent and contribute to drive land
prices away from their intrinsic values. Conversely, the other regime is characterized
by strong mean reversion in which market valuation becomes closer to fundamental
determinants of values.