Modeling Correlated and Disaggregated Crop Revenue Distributions: Implications under Mixed Policy and Program Initiatives

This work outlines the quantitative procedures and results of the policy effects for alternative designs of federal revenue-based farm income safety net programs on eight individual representative farms across the state of Nebraska. Measures include financial impacts of the farm crop revenue-based safety net with a state revenue trigger versus potential alternative programs involving guarantees at the district, county, and farm levels. The methodology correlates national yield and prices with state, district, county, and farm-level yields. Results indicate that decreasing the aggregation of the revenue guarantee increases expected farm-level payments and program costs for the revenue-based safety net.