Policy makers in Papua New Guinea want to increase rice self-sufficiency. Food security has been cited as a reason, because the recent fall in the world price for tree crops causes rice imports to make a larger call on scarce export earnings. Analysis of the long run trend in the terms of trade between rice and tree crops suggests that rice self-sufficiency will not produce a sensible allocation of resources. The falling relative price of rice makes it is more efficient to devote resources to expansion of exports, particularly cocoa and coffee, in order to import rice.