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Abstract

In the 1980s and early 1990s, wheat imports accounted for about four-fifths of China's import of cereals, and imported wheat accounts for about 30 percent of wheat supply. As a result of the many recent developments in Chinese government’s policy on wheat production and marketing as well as China’s WTO accession negotiations, how the Chinese wheat market will evolve presents an interesting and important area for policy makers and major wheat trading companies both within and outside China. In this paper, we highlight recent changes in China's wheat production and consumption patterns and marketing arrangements. We then, by taking into account of likely government policy scenarios, analyse implications of such changes on wheat market development in China and on wheat trade in the international market.

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