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Abstract

According to the latest revised agricultural economic statistical data in China Statistical Yearbook-2010, by selecting and establishing the square root-treated grey model, the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output of China from 201 1 to 2015 are conducted. The results show that me grain output of China in 2011 will reach 557.739 million tons, and it will break through 600 million tons at 605.617 million tons in 2015. The persistent and stable grain output will ensure that the national economy develops in normal during the twelfth five-year plan period and remit the world grain crisis efficiently; meanwhile, the problem of exorbitant grain prices should be remitted in some level.

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