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Abstract

We should expect 2004-05 soybean prices to be much lower than 2003-04, but near the historically average. On the other hand, while the numbers shown are my best analysis, I feel there is a lot of price risk in both directions as we go from now through the 2004-05 marketing year. While looking good now, the crop was planted late, and some disease problems are showing up. On the demand side, exports will be the key.

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