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Abstract

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2010-2020 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years. Sugar prices were increased from 18.7 cents/ lb in 2009 to 27 cents/lb in 2010. World sugar production increased in 2010 along with consumption. Ending stocks did tighten in 2010. Ending stock projections by various organizations for 2011 were lower than previously estimated. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices remaining near the 16.0 -19.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to remain in the 32 to 34 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 586 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2020. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.

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