Files
Abstract
Our study examines the potential
developments of cultural landscapes, taking into
consideration various economic and social
conditions (scenarios). The study takes place in
three project regions which represent typical
landscapes in Southern Germany and Austria. In
each project area, the influence of a changing
economic and political framework is analysed. The
following scenarios are defined: (1) status quo
(current economic and agri-political framework);
(2) high-producer prices and constant (or even
increasing) direct payments; and (3) low-producer
prices and no (or very low) direct payments. In all
three regions, potential production responses are
estimated for all farms and aggregated on a
regional level. The estimation takes into account
social and economic parameters such as cash flow,
size and type of farms, age of farmers and
workload.
The results show that the impact of the changing
agro-economic environment differs in particular on
the level of the study regions. Due to a lack of
production alternatives, agricultural production in
grassland areas is very unstable – especially if site
conditions are unfavourable and economic
conditions are disadvantageous. As a result, largescale
abandonment of agriculture is likely in lowyield
grassland areas and consequences for
landscape appearance might be dramatic. In highyield
grassland areas, agriculture is much more
stable. However, under very disadvantageous
conditions the extent of farms giving-up production
is as high as in marginal grassland regions.
Nevertheless one cannot expect large-scale set aside,
because remaining farmers use the possibility of
growth and lease a considerable quantity of land In
contrast to this, farm structure in the arable regions
is stable due to a high potential of production
alternatives. However, landscape appearance may
also change dramatically in this region due to the
increasing importance of maize.