Files
Abstract
Currently France wants to introduce a weather risk management framework into
its agricultural policy for livestock farming. The aim of this paper is to better understand how
on-farm risk reducing strategies modify the production system and profit distribution of
French suckler cow enterprises. We present in this paper an original bioeconomic model that
takes into account both risk anticipation and risk adjustments and that details biotechnical
relationships between the different components of the beef cattle production system and their
dynamics. On-farm risk management strategies are endogeneized under weather uncertainty
and tested on real observed weather sequences. We simulate four scenarios characterized by
different risk aversions and feed prices. Results emphasized that production adjustments,
particularly the adjustments of area of grassland harvested and the possibility to purchase
substitutes to on-farm forage production, improve farmers profit under weather variability.
However, limiting the amplitude of these adjustments helps decreasing profit variability. All
simulated long term decisions associated to risk reducing strategies encompass a reduction of
long term stocking rate and the constitution of feed stocks. The impact of hay feed price on the
market has similar effects on the long term strategy.