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Abstract

According to the 2000-2010 Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook, per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province in the years 2001-2009 are analyzed starting from the ecological footprint model. Per capita ecological deficit is measured, as well as the pressure index of ecological footprint in order to judge the grade of ecological security and to objectively evaluate the ecological security of Jiangsu Province. GM(1,1) grey forecasting model is used to forecast the ecological security of Jiangsu Province in the years 2010-2014. Research shows that in the next 5 years, both the per capita ecological footprint and the pressure index of ecological footprint will increase by 4% and 3.7% each year, respectively. And the ecological status in Jiangsu Province will be extremely unsafe. To achieve the coordinated development of ecological security and economy of Jiangsu Province, we should strictly control the population growth, rationally utilize the land resources, and strengthen the ecological restoration and construction.

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