Prediction and Analysis of Chinese Rural Households’ Consumption Level Based on the ARIMA Model

By using the software SAS9.2 and the relevant data of consumption level of rural residents in China from 1952 to 2008, the ARIMA model is established. The model is used to analyze and forecast the time series of the consumption level of Chinese rural residents. The results show that in the near future period of time, the consumption level of Chinese rural residents will be further increased. In 2012, the level will break through per capital 5 000 yuan, almost 100 times more than that in the primary time period. But consumption level does not equal to living standard. To let farmers lead a good life, the government should follow the objective laws, take the overall situation into consideration; coordinate the relations among farmers’ consumption level, national subsidies and farmers’ production enthusiasm. Therefore, It suggested that the historical and objective factors should be attached more importance to，raising farmers’ income and allaying farmers’ fear were effective measures in developing the consumptive potential of rural market and promoting the economic sustainable development.