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### Abstract

Citrus black spot (CBS) was discovered in March of 2010 near Immokalee in Collier County. CBS may adversely impact citrus growers both through demand and supply impacts. This paper has focused on the demand side of the equation. The analysis has also focused on Florida honey tangerines and the market in California. This market accounts for about 17.7% of Florida honey tangerine sales. If Florida product were banned from California in fear of CBS spreading there, the FOB price for Florida honey tangerines is estimated to decline by $3.48 to$4.40 per box, all else constant. The on-tree price would be expected to decline by the same amounts. However, with respect to production costs, all else would not be constant. Growers would be expected to bear increased grove care costs to control CBS. Thus, with higher grove care costs and the same production next season, the grower price for Florida honey tangerines net of grove care costs would decline by more than the $3.48 to$4.40 per box levels.