In response to demand from China, rubber smallholdings are being established by shifting cultivators in Northern Laos, encouraged by government land-use policy. We examine the economics of smallholder rubber production in an established rubbergrowing village and model the likely expansion of smallholder rubber in Northern Laos. Data were obtained from key informants, group interviews, direct observation, and a farm-household survey. Latex yields were estimated using the Bioeconomic Rubber Agroforestry Support System (BRASS). A financial model was developed to estimate the net present value for a representative rubber smallholding. This model was then combined with spatial data in a Geographical Information System (GIS) to predict the likely expansion of rubber based on resource quality and accessibility.