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Abstract
Human activity has modified the environment at all scales from the smallest
ecosystems to the global climate systems. In the analysis of the Murray-Darling
Basin, it is necessary to take account of effects of human activity ranging from
local changes in water tables and soil structure through basin-level effects of the
expansion of irrigation to changes in precipitation pattern arising from the
accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In this paper, we analyse
the impact of, and adjustments to, climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin,
using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent representation of
uncertainty.