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Abstract

In this paper the current state of supply modelling in agriculture is reviewed. It is argued that (I) the stock of knowledge of elasticities is depreciating, (2) historical estimates are misleading because many phenomena are confounded in few parameters, (3) available data are not being efficiently exploited, and (4) a proliferation of hypotheses is leading to an inability to discriminate in an appropriately comprehensive context. The latter problem is leading to an inability to do forward-looking analyses. Several suggestions are made for dealing with these problems that involve some relaxation of the standard of objectivity which in reality is unattainable in many kinds of practical applied work.

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