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Abstract

The Arkansas Global Rice Model is based on a multi-country statistical simulation and econometric framework. The model is disaggregated by five world regions: Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Each region includes country models which have a supply sector, a demand sector, a trade, stocks and price linkage equations. All equations used in this model are estimated using econometric procedures or identities. Estimates are based upon a set of explanatory variables including exogenous macroeconomic factors such as income, population, inflation rate, technology development, and especially, government determined policy variables which reflect the various mechanisms by which countries intervene in their rice sector economy. Individual country models are linked through net trade to recognize the interdependence of countries in the world rice economy.

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