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Abstract

Since the structural adjustment days of the 1990s, targeting inflation to single digit rates has remained a predominant feature of Uganda’s macroeconomic strategy towards creating and sustaining an enabling environment for poverty-reducing growth. One of the most commonly advanced arguments for this inflation targeting strategy is the minimization of the erosion of the purchasing power of the poor. Implicit in this argument is the concern that inflation hurts the poor the most. However, since different consumers purchase different bundles of goods and services depending on personal and location-specific socioeconomic characteristics, when inflation rises beyond the targeted range, it is not obvious which income group experiences a relatively higher rate of inflation. Even when group-specific inflation rates are known, the subpopulation with a higher relative rate of inflation may not necessary be the one that bears the brunt of a surge in inflation...

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