@article{Musshoff:97196,
      recid = {97196},
      author = {Musshoff, Oliver and Hirschauer, Norbert},
      title = {Wie viel bringt eine verbesserte  Produktionsprogrammplanung auf der Grundlage einer  systematischen Auswertung empirischer Zeitreihen? – Die  Bedeutung von Prognosemodellen bei der Optimierung unter  Unsicherheit},
      journal = {German Journal of Agricultural Economics},
      address = {2006},
      number = {670-2016-45752},
      pages = {13},
      year = {2006},
      abstract = {In this paper we examine whether there is room for  improvement in farm program decisions through the  integration of formal mathematical optimisation into the  planning process. Probing the potential for improvement, we  investigate the cases of four Brandenburg cash crop farms  over the last six years. We find that their total gross  margins could have been increased significantly through a  more sophisticated program planning. However, we also find  that the superiority of formalised planning approaches  depends on the quality of the data. The superior formal  planning approach includes, in contrast to farmers’ ad hoc  planning, a systematic time series analysis of gross  margins and a stochastic optimisation model. For each of  the six years, the formal planning approach provides  optimised alternative programs based on the information  available to the farmers at the respective time of  planning. In order to avoid solutions that exceed the  farmers’ risk tolerance, the variance of the observed  program’s total gross margin which implicitly reflects the  risk attitude of the individual farmer is used as an upper  bound in the optimisation. Using the yields and prices  realised at the end of each planning period, the total  gross margins that could have been realized through the  formally optimised programs in each year are then compared  to those that were actually realised.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/97196},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.97196},
}