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Abstract
The objective of this study is to provide monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in
European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio-economic projections
derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate
models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the
GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The
estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and value of
world supply under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional
differences between northern and southern European countries. The simulations were based on
crop productivity changes that considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation or
restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered
optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view.
Water restrictions and socio-economic variables that modify the probabilities of change
occurring may also be considered in a later stage of the study. The monetary estimates show that
in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the
derive from climate scenarios.