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Abstract

The objective of this study is to provide monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio-economic projections derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate models and regional climate models. The quantitative results are based simulations using the GTAP general equilibrium models system that includes all relevant economic activities. The estimated changes in the exports and imports of agricultural goods, value of GDP and value of world supply under the climate and socio-economic scenarios show significant regional differences between northern and southern European countries. The simulations were based on crop productivity changes that considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation or restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Water restrictions and socio-economic variables that modify the probabilities of change occurring may also be considered in a later stage of the study. The monetary estimates show that in all cases uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than the derive from climate scenarios.

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