@article{Holst:90802,
      recid = {90802},
      author = {Holst, Carsten},
      title = {How Predictable are Prices of Agricultural Commodities? –  The Possibilities and  Constraints of Forecasting Wheat  Prices},
      address = {2010-06-16},
      number = {924-2016-72968},
      pages = {18},
      month = {Jun},
      year = {2010},
      abstract = {Wheat price forecasts are very important for traders,  farmers and politicians as well. However, only quite  accurate price predictions can guide these groups towards  making the best decisions. Therefore the well-known wheat  price projections of both the OECD and the FAPRI from 1996  on are tested for their predictive accuracy using Theil’s  inequality coefficient. Despite the fact that both models  could not foresee the price peak which occurred in February  2008, their predictions offer more accurate values than a  naive prediction of no price change. Nevertheless, precise  price forecasts cannot be expected by the models of the  OECD and the FAPRI since some short-run effects such as  inappropriate weather are not predictable. Thus, our own  econometric model is developed taking the previous price  development, the stocks-to-use-ratio and the crude oil  price into account. In comparison to the projections of  both institutions the model, with rather simple  assumptions, was able to generate forecasts more  accurately. In a simulation study which takes different  crude oil price levels and stochastic effects of the world  wheat consumption and the average yields per hectare into  account, the possible wheat price range is shown as large.  Therefore, price predictions can only inform about general  long-run trends.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/90802},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.90802},
}