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Abstract

We forecast a six-month extension of the Trade Promotion Authority, until December 2007, so that the Doha Development Round can be brought to a conclusion. With an extension of TPA, we expect shallow results will be achieved in the DDR during the rest of 2007, with many of the negative consequences described in our first scenario. To keep the WTO in the game and to keep hope alive, we predict that, at the end of DDR negotiations, WTO ministers will announce a series of plurilateral talks for particular sectors – e.g., zero-for-zero tariffs for selected manufactured goods, continued talks on Mode 2 for selected service sectors, and additional coverage of the government procurement code.

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