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Abstract
There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive
interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. In this paper we demonstrate a
probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic
salmon fisheries. The analysis is based on several studies carried out by scientists
from respective disciplines. The main part consisted of biological and ecological stock
assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries.
Recreational fisheries were evaluated separately. Finally, a sociological study was
conducted aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment
to alternative management plans. In order to synthesize the findings from these
disparate studies a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology is used.
The ranking of management options can depend on the stakeholder perspective. The
trade-offs can be analysed quantitatively with the BBN model by combining,
according to the decision maker’s set of priorities, utility functions that represent
stakeholders’ views. We show how BBN can be used to evaluate robustness of
management decisions to different priorities and various sources of uncertainty. In
particular, the importance of sociological studies in quantifying uncertainty about the
commitment of fishermen to management plans is highlighted by modelling the link
between commitment and implementation success.