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Abstract

In this study, a world model for the international market of coffee is developed and analyzed, considering its major exporters (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Africa, Central America and Asia) and its major importers (United States, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Spain, Canada, United Kingdom, Holland). That model is, then, simulated for several shocks such as the reduction of barriers that would reduce prices of coffee in all import markets, an increase in income that would increase the world demand, and variations in production of Brazil and Asia. The results evaluated in the short and long run, indicated that the main effects on the coffee prices occurs when there are changes in production, especially in Brazil. The reductions of barriers have small effects in trade flows, and increases in international demand would benefit most exporters from Brazil and Mexico.

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