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Abstract
Irrigation farmers in the lower reaches of the Vaal and Riet Rivers are experiencing
substantial yield reductions in certain crops and more profitable crops have been withdrawn
from production, hypothesised, as a result of generally poor but especially fluctuating water
quality. In this paper secondary data is used in a linear programming model to test this
hypothesis by calculating the potential loss in farm level optimal returns. The model is static
with a time frame of two production seasons. Linear crop-water quality production functions
(Ayers & Westcot, 1983; adapted from Maas & Hoffmann, 1977) are used to calculate net
returns for the eight most common crops grown. Results show optimal enterprise
composition under various water quality situations. Leaching is justified financially and
there is a strong motivation for a change in the current water pricing system. SALMOD
(Salinity and Leaching Model for Optimal irrigation Development) is the Excel Solver model
used to derive the preliminary results, but is currently being developed further in GAMS
(General Algebraic Modelling System). Useful results have already been obtained on which
this paper is based. The ultimate aim for SALMOD is a mathematical model using dynamic
optimisation, simulation and risk modelling techniques to aid in whole farm and system level
management decisions to ensure sustainable irrigation agriculture under stochastic river
water quality conditions.