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Abstract
This paper considers how the design of agricultural policies and programmes might be
modified to better achieve policy objectives in the context of severe HIV epidemics and
underscores the central role of agricultural policy in mitigating the spread and impacts of the
epidemic. Based on projections of future demographic change in the hardest-hit countries of
eastern and southern Africa, HIV/AIDS is likely to have the following effects on the
agricultural sector: (1) increased rural inequality caused by disproportionately severe effects
of AIDS on relatively poor households; (2) a reduction in household assets and wealth,
leading to less capital-intensive cropping systems for severely affected communities and
households; and (3) problems in transferring knowledge of crop husbandry and marketing to
the succeeding generation of African farmers. It is argued that -- even though the absolute
number of working age adults in the hardest-hit countries is projected to remain roughly the
same over the next two decades -- the cost of labour in agriculture may rise in some areas as
increasing scarcity of capital (notably, animal draft power for land preparation and weeding)
will increase the demand for labour in agricultural production or shift agricultural systems to
less labour- and capital-intensive crops.
The paper suggests that the most effective means for agricultural policy to respond to
HIV/AIDS will entail focusing on: (1) investing in agricultural research to generate improved
technologies capable of raising the productivity of crop and livestock systems; (2)
rehabilitating agricultural extension services; (3) instituting crop and input marketing systems
that contribute to small scale farmers productivity and food security. Finally, the paper
provides some elements of a framework for governments and donors to assess and potentially
modify existing agricultural programmes, policies, and investment strategies for achieving
their agricultural and rural development objectives after factoring in the impacts of
HIV/AIDS on the rural socio-economy.