@article{Ryan:48287,
      recid = {48287},
      author = {Ryan, James G.},
      title = {Assessing the impact of rice policy changes in Viet Nam  and the contribution of policy research},
      address = {1999},
      number = {590-2016-39897},
      series = {Impact Assessment Discussion Paper},
      pages = {70},
      year = {1999},
      abstract = {The marketing and policy research on rice of the  International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) is  described, and the conclusions and recommendations  that
emerged are discussed in the context of the  decision-making processes in Viet Nam. The
role of IFPRI's  publication and communication activities in association  with the project in
informing the policy environment are  discussed. It is clear these played a crucial role  in
building consensus among the disparate groups involved  in the policy process. This
aspect was widely acknowledged  by partners and stakeholders as having high value.
From  extensive interviews the author describes the perceptions  of partners and
stakeholders of the influence of the  outcomes of the IFPRI project. They show that the
research  was regarded as being of high quality, independent,  rigorous, and timely. A
strong foundation of primary and  secondary data gathering and analysis from Viet Nam
gave  the modeling work on policy options a high degree of  credibility among key
policymakers. Linking the spatial  equilibrium model with income distribution analysis
based  on national household surveys allowed IFPRI to satisfy  policymakers that relaxing
rice export quotas and internal  trade restrictions on rice would not adversely impact  on
regional disparities and food security and would have  beneficial effects on farm prices
and poverty. These were  major concerns of policymakers prior to the project.  The
research on these and other policy options gave a  degree of confidence to policymakers
that relaxing the  controls would be in Viet Nam's national interest. They  made these
decisions earlier than would have been the case  without the IFPRI research.
A framework for the evaluation  of policy research and advice is described,  which
explicitly recognizes the possibility of alternative  suppliers of these two components to
IFPRI. The framework  is used to assess the impact of IFPRI's research with Viet  Nam on
alternative internal and external trade policies for  rice in that country.
The policy assessment framework is  used to measure the economic impact of the
policy changes,  and the contribution of IFPRI's work with Viet Nam on the  policies from
1995–97. The relaxation of rice export quotas  and internal restrictions on rice trade made
by the  government of Viet Nam in 1995–97 are estimated to have had  a present (1995)
value to Viet Nam of $61 million using a 5  percent discount rate. If continued to 2000,
this will rise  to $222 million and to $966 million by 2020. For an  incremental investment
of less than US$1 million, a  conservative estimate of the benefit to Viet Nam of the  IFPRI
contribution to the policy changes effected in Viet  Nam from the reduction in the policy
implementation lag  indicates a present value in 1995 terms of US$45 million.  This
represents a benefit-cost ratio of 56. A more  optimistic assessment is that the present
value is US$91  million with a benefit-cost ratio of 114. In addition to  the welfare gains
-ivto
Viet Nam, there were sizeable gains  to the rest of the world from IFPRI's  contribution.
Inclusion of these benefits increases present  value and benefit-cost estimates by 34 to 84
percent.  Around 40 percent of the contribution of IFPRI is estimated  to have accrued to
the rest of the world as Viet Nam is now  a major player in world rice trade.},
      url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/48287},
      doi = {https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.48287},
}