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Abstract
The WTO negotiations on agriculture were placed in cold storage in July 2008 although 18 of the
20 major agenda items had been agreed. The sticking point was the safeguard measures to control
import surges, while the final issue, relating to domestic support for US cotton, was not addressed.
Quantitative analysis of the numbers on the table indicate that improvements in market access in
the European Union and Japan drive changes in exports and welfare, whereas special safeguard
measures, export subsidies, domestic support and special products appear to be of lesser
importance. Many developing countries, including most LDCs, would enjoy export gains but
experience welfare losses because of higher import prices.