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Abstract
The production of milk is facing major challenges in the coming reforms of Common
Agricultural policy (CAP). At the same time the global market demand for refined milk
products is changing mostly because of increasing welfare in Asian market (China, India).
These EU and global level changes affect Finnish agriculture in many ways. In this paper the
focus is on the future of milk production in Northern perspective studied with one of the
futures studies method, the Delphi method. The Delphi method aims to identify and explore
alternative future possibilities, their probabilities of occurrence, and their desirability by
tapping into the expertise of respondents.
The studied themes in the Delphi questionnaires were defined according to their policy
relevancy. The themes were 1) the structural change of milk production 2) the agricultural
policy changes 3) the changes in milk market and national economy 4) the changes in
technology, production processes and know-how and 5) the changes in consumption and in
societal values. These themes interact closely with each other, and therefore they are
interpreted as a whole to capture a holistic view on the future milk production in Finland. We
produce alternative future images for the milk sector in Finland between 2007 and 2025 based
on views and argumentation of the Delphi panel experts. The first round of the Delphi study
was carried out by structured questionnaire (internet survey) including five face-to-face
interviews and the second feedback round followed the same procedure. The panel consisted
of 30 national experts familiar with the milk sector.
The future images of the milk sector are constructed and related policy choices are
recognized by analysing major driving forces and directions of development in terms of their
importance, likelihood and desirability. An analytical framework to assess strategic decision-making
challenges is outlined and key issues to be taken into account in the future policy
design are identified. The derived future images give a clear picture about policy challenges
and alternative development paths that the milk sector as well as the CAP has to be prepared
to cope with by the year 2025.