The paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact on the banana market of the expansion of trade preferences the EU granted ACP countries with the recent Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA) and of the possible erosion of these preferences as a result of different possible endings, if any, of on-going WTO negotiations. The results of the simulations performed suggest that the impact of the EPA on the production and consumption of bananas in the EU will be limited, while benefits for ACP countries will be significant (at the expense of MFN exporters). However, a final agreement in the WTO DDA round may bring an erosion of the preferential margins currently enjoyed by ACP countries of such an order of magnitude as to cancel out most of these benefits. The actual outcome will depend on the EU bound tariff for bananas which will be subject to the reduction commitments (will this be the one indicated in the Uruguay Round EU “schedules”, or the tariff introduced with the reform of the EU import regime for bananas in 2006?); on whether bananas will be included among “tropical products”; and, if this is the case, on the provisions for “tropical products” contained in the final agreement. Possible outcomes of current bilateral negotiations between the EU and MFN exporters are analyzed as well.


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