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Abstract

This study uses a stochastic simulation approach based on a partial equilibrium structural econometric model of the world fiber market to examine the effects of a removal of U.S. cotton programs on the world market. The effects on world cotton prices and African export earnings were analyzed. The results suggest that on average an elimination of U.S. cotton programs would lead to a marginal increase in the world cotton prices thus resulting in minimal gain for cotton exporting countries in Africa.

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