Livestock production has thus become a key pillar of rural revitalization and agricultural
modernization. However, herders in China’s pastoral regions face significant risks from natural
disasters, wildlife conflicts, and market fluctuations, which threaten income stability and
sustainable development. Using survey data from 522 herder households in the Qilian Mountains,
this study employs a Double-Hurdle model to examine how herders’ perceptions of natural disaster,
wildlife conflict, and market risks affect their livestock insurance purchase decisions and payment
amounts. The results reveal that a one-unit increase in overall risk perception raises the probability
of purchasing insurance by 34.2% and increases insurance expenditure by 1,512.1 CNY 2
.
Specifically, only natural disaster perception demonstrates a statistically significant effect on
insurance expenditure: a one-unit increase in this perception raises the probability of purchasing
insurance by 3.0% and increases expenditure by 242.9 CNY. Perceived market risk increases
purchase probability by 6.2%, and wildlife conflict risk increases it by 2.9%. Regional
heterogeneity is evident: Qinghai herders respond more strongly to natural disaster risks in
determining insurance payment amount, whereas Gansu herders are more responsive in their purchase decisions. Across livestock types, natural disaster perception remains the dominant driver
of insurance participation and expenditure for both cattle and sheep herders. These findings
highlight the importance of tailoring policy-based livestock insurance to regional and behavioral
contexts. Strengthening herders’ market risk awareness, improving insurance accessibility and
trust, and aligning insurance with ecological conservation policies can enhance participation and
promote sustainable pastoral livelihoods.
