The Legal Amazon, a critical biome for global climate stability, has experienced a significant increase in wildfires, driven by both natural and human factors. In response, the Brazilian government launched the Green Brazil Operations (1 and 2) to combat illegal deforestation and wildfires. This study evaluates the effectiveness of these operations in reducing wildfire occurrences using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) methodology on a monthly panel dataset spanning 2017–2023. Results indicate that neither operation significantly reduced fire outbreaks. Additionally, contrary to policy objectives, the number of environmental fines decreased during the operational periods. These findings highlight the limitations of the Green Brazil Operations in addressing the root causes of wildfires and underscore the need for more comprehensive, integrated strategies that align enforcement with socio-economic realities in the region.
