Saltwater intrusion and flooding from sea level rise (SWISLR) causes substantial damage to coastal agriculture.
Using real estate sale records, measures of coastal flooding, and measures of relative mean sea levels, I estimate
SWISLR’s effect on agricultural land sales over 1985 to 2023 from Texas to New Jersey using a spatial differencein-
differences Ricardian approach accounting for expectations of future exposure. This study is the first and most
spatially comprehensive fair market value investigation of SWISLR’s effects on agriculture, at least in the US. Total
damages for the approximately 70.5 million acres within the study area amount to nearly $4 billion [$0.5 billion,
$7 billion, 95% CI]. This damage is concentrated—the approximate 8.9 million acres of agricultural land within 5
miles of the coast suffered about $1000 per-acre in damage—and doesn’t include complete land loss. Landowners
anticipate and capitalize future worsening exposure into their land values, and the majority of this updating occurs
because of hurricane rain exposure. Though, despite forecasting future SWISLR exposure, landowners are evidently
not mitigating damages. This is possibly because no effective options exist. These results suggest agricultural sea
level rise impacts are substantially underway and insufficiently addressed.
