In response to the re-emergence of New World Screwworm in Central America, the USDA suspended importations of live cattle from Mexico. While importation restrictions are an important biosecurity measure, they distort domestic prices and production, thereby impacting producer welfare. The objective of this study was to estimate changes to fed and feeder cattle producer surplus associated with permitting Mexican feeder cattle imports under enhanced NWS inspection protocols during 2025. We first estimate a simultaneous equation model of the fed and feeder cattle markets, and then simulate the impacts of increased feeder cattle imports during 2025 on fed and feeder cattle prices and quantities. Lastly, we calculate changes to fed and feeder cattle producer surplus during 2025. We estimate that the number of 2025 feeder cattle imports would have been approximately 1,035,187 head if the border had been open with enhanced NWS inspection. This increase in supply would have led to approximately a $672 million increase and a $839 million decrease to fed and feeder cattle producer surplus, respectively. This work can inform policy by improving understanding of the tradeoffs associated with NWS management strategies.
