Objective: This study examines how contrasting family policy logics—re-familialized versus de-familialized approaches—affect fertility intentions among Chinese households. Background: Despite ongoing policy reforms, China’s fertility rate remains low, prompting a shift toward policies informed by micro-level preferences. While re-familialized policies reinforce family-based caregiving, de-familialized policies aim to redistribute care through public or market channels. Which approach resonates more with Chinese families remains unclear, especially given limited observational data. Methods: Using data from 1,860 respondents in six provincial capitals, we conducted a discrete choice experiment simulating six family policy scenarios. A Random Parameters Logit model estimated the effects of policy types on fertility intentions across income and gender subgroups. Results: Fertility intentions rose significantly under simulated policies. Re-familialized policies (e.g., housing and cash subsidies) had stronger overall effects. Women responded more to de-familialized policies (e.g., parental leave, childcare), while low-income groups favored financial support. Conclusions: Policy effectiveness varies by demographic characteristics and policy type. Recognizing these differences is key to designing equitable and effective fertility policies in China.
