In 1994, some prominent western assessments expressed no doubt on the actual and foreseeable agrofood competitiveness of the CEECS, compared to the EU. This lead to dramatize the risk of more excess supplies after enlargement, hence the need for radical further step of CAP reform. Carefully revisiting and updating relevant evidence lead us to different views. For a core of basic products and Central European countries, the EU 15 would likely draw durable net trade advantage from mutual deprotection. Meanwhile, such a scenario requires : further cap reform for removing quantitative selflimitation to net trade expansion eastward, and significant pre- (and post) accession structural supports by the eu to the CEECS.
