Objective: To estimate the potential distribution of the threatened Strix occidentalis lucida in a portion of central Mexico and contribute with information throughout its range for conservation.Design/methodology/approach: The Maxent algorithm and the ArcMap software were used with 21 records of the presence of the Mexican spotted owl, 19 bioclimatic layers, four layers of the digital elevation model, one of cover, and one of vegetation and land use to model the potential distribution. A map with different distribution categories was created with ArcMap and QGIS.Results: The modeling of the distribution has a ROC curve value of 0.984 that indicates a good prediction. Three categories of probability of distribution were obtained. The layers with the greatest contribution to the model were the elevation, cover, vegetation, and six bioclimatic layers of precipitation and temperature. The area in km2 and the municipalities corresponding to each category of distribution by state were obtained.Limitations on study/implications: Maxent seems to be a useful tool to define the distribution of Strix occidentalis lucida. However, to validate its results it is necessary to verify in the field the presence of this species at the sites indicated by this model.Findings/conclusions: The coverage, vegetation, elevation, precipitation and temperature were the variables that most explained the potential distribution model and correspond to those reported in the literature for the species. Zacatecas presented the largest area with a very high probability of distribution.
